轻非水相液体污染源区结构的影响因素数值分析

轻非水相液体（light non-aqueous phase liquid,LNPAL）在地下介质中的运移分布与残余捕获受多种因素影响和控制。LNAPL污染场地概念模型中一般视LNAPL从地表泄漏后穿过包气带至潜水面。然而地下介质的非均质性与包气带含水量的空间变异分布可形成复杂的LNAPL污染源区结构,LNAPL可能无法到达潜水面,而在毛细水带蓄积。文章基于数值模型综合分析了LNAPL泄漏量、介质非均质性与含水量空间变异分布、潜水面周期性变化等多种因素对LNAPL污染源区结构的影响。研究表明:（1）当泄漏量较大时,LNAPL可运移至潜水面;（2）当泄漏量较小时,对于上粗下细的层状非均质条件,LNAPL可能在毛细水带边缘发生蓄积,无法到达潜水面;（3）包气带中黏土透镜体并非都是LNAPL运移的阻碍,LNAPL可以穿透低含水量的黏土透镜体,只有高含水量的黏土透镜体才对LNAPL的入渗有阻碍作用;（4）潜水面周期性变化将导致污染范围扩大。     

Pore structure and heterogeneity of shale gas reservoirs and its effect on gas storage capacity in the Qiongzhusi Formation

Fine characterization of pore systems and heterogeneity of shale reservoirs are significant contents of shale gas reservoir physical property research.The research on micro-control factors of low productivity in the Qiongzhusi Formation(Fm.)is still controversial.The lower Cambrian Qiongzhusi Fm.in the Qujing,Yunnan was taken as the object to investigate the influence of mineral compositions on the phys-ical properties of the reservoir and the heterogeneity of shale,using the algorithm to improve the char-acterization ability of Atomic Force Microscopy(AFM).The results showed that:(1)The pores are mainly wedge-shaped pores and V-shaped pores.The pore diameter of the main pore segment ranges from 5 to 10 nm.Mesopores are mainly developed in the Qiongzhusi Fm.shale in Well QD1,with the average pore diameter of 6.08 nm.(2)Microscopic pore structure and shale surface properties show strong hetero-geneity,which complicates the micro-migration of shale gas and increases the difficulty of identifying high-quality reservoirs.(3)The increase of clay mineral content intensifies the compaction and then destroys the pores.Conversely,brittle minerals can protect pores.The support and protection of brittle minerals to pores space depend on their content,mechanical properties and diagenesis.(4)Compression damage to pores,large microscopic roughness and surface fluctuations and strong pore structure heterogeneity are the reasons for the poor gas storage capacity of the Qiongzhusi Fm.,which will lead to poor productivity in the Qiongzhusi Fm.     

丘陵地区边界层风廓线雷达数据统计特性分析

采用数据获取率来分析和评价风廓线雷达的探测能力, 对通过2012年的风廓线数据进行统计分析。结果表明:数据获取率和信噪比都随季节变化, 夏季探测能力大于冬季。按照数据获取率达到80%的要求, 确定边界层风廓线雷达无降雨天气有效探测高度为3 km, 并确定低模和高模最佳衔接高度为0.6 km, 能够获得更好的数据获取率。在无降雨天气, 信噪比随高度呈现对数函数单调递减的变化规律, 夏季信噪比的衰减程度比冬季大;在降雨天气, 信噪比随高度呈现一次函数的变化规律, 其斜率范围在-10.44~-2.47之间, 而夏季信噪比的衰减程度比冬季小。     

北部湾冬季风生环流的数值模拟及其对海洋环境的影响分析

利用Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model(FVCOM)三维模式以及National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)Climate Forecast System提供的北部湾的冬季风场,建立了北部湾冬季的风生环流模型。模拟得到北部湾冬季表中底层的风生环流结构。结果表明:整体上看,环流从琼州海峡流入北部湾,沿越南沿岸向南流动。从分层结构上看,冬季表层北部湾中部位置被1个大范围逆时针环流控制,南部湾口附近也存在1个不闭合的逆时针环流;而中层和底层的环流在琼州海峡西北和西南侧各形成1个小的逆时针环流,同时北部湾北部中间位置呈现1个顺时针环流。琼州海峡、广西及越南沿岸环流流速较大,有利于污染物的输移扩散,而北部湾北部中间位置,莺歌咀附近出现闭合环流且海南岛西南岸流速较小,不利于污染物的输移扩散,对冬季北部湾的海洋环境会产生不利影响。     

Forced response of the East Asian summer rainfall over the past millennium: results from a coupled model simulation

The centennial?Cmillennial variation of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) precipitation over the past 1000?years was investigated through the analysis of a millennium simulation of the coupled ECHO-G model. The model results indicate that the centennial?Cmillennial variation of the EASM is essentially a forced response to the external radiative forcing (insolation, volcanic aerosol, and green house gases). The strength of the response depends on latitude; and the spatial structure of the centennial?Cmillennial variation differs from the interannual variability that arises primarily from the internal feedback processes within the climate system. On millennial time scale, the extratropical and subtropical precipitation was generally strong during Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and weak during Little Ice Age (LIA). The tropical rainfall is insensitive to the effective solar radiation forcing (insolation plus radiative effect of volcanic aerosols) but significantly responds to the modern anthropogenic radiative forcing. On centennial time scale, the variation of the extratropical and subtropical rainfall also tends to follow the effective solar radiation forcing closely. The forced response features in-phase rainfall variability between the extratropics and subtropics, which is in contrast to the anti-correlation on the interannual time scale. Further, the behavior of the interannual?Cdecadal variation in the extratropics is effectively modulated by change of the mean states on the millennial time scale, suggesting that the structure of the internal mode may vary with significant changes in the external forcing. These findings imply that on the millennial time scale, (a) the proxy data in the extratropical EA may more sensitively reflect the EASM rainfall variations, and (b) the Meiyu and the northern China rainfall provide a consistent measure for the EASM strength.     

极地冰盖物质平衡的最新进展与未来挑战

准确地探明冰盖物质平衡状况,对于研究全球变暖背景下海平面变化具有重要的意义,自IPCC AR4(政府间气候变化专门委员会第四次报告)以来,极地冰盖物质平衡的研究取得了很大进展。本文总结并对比了用卫星测高(雷达测高和激光测高)、物质收支测量和重力测量等方法得到的冰盖物质平衡评估结果,综述了冰盖数值模拟研究在预测冰盖未来的变化趋势以及由此对海平面造成的影响等方面取得的进展,并立足于中国当前的极地冰盖物质平衡研究现状,提出了该研究所面临的挑战。     

天津市热储规划分区和地热井审批系统研发

为解决天津市地热工作中大量地热地质专业数据处理工作周期长与管理决策快速、科学要求相矛盾的问题,满足地热开发利用科学规划发展的要求,为资源的可持续开发利用提供操作简单、智能的工具和手段;在过去天津地热工作的基础上,提出了"两线一面"三维动态分区方法,利用MapGIS SDK及Visual Basic开发了地热工程热储规划分区及地热井审批查询系统。该系统的开发为规划的制定和落实提供了快速、全面、直观的规划分区,并且具有动态跟踪功能。在规划期间内,每年根据热储动态观测数据,利用该系统制作一套年度规划分区图,供管理部门掌握规划情况和动态审批。     

基于EnKF综合水头和浓度观测数据推估地下水流模型参数

地下水反应运移模型具有参数个数众多,观测数据类型多样的特点。为了探究不同类型观测数据在反应运移模拟数据同化中的数据价值,构建了三氯乙烯降解反应运移模型的理想算例,基于水头和浓度两种类型观测数据,采用集合卡尔曼滤波方法推估渗透系数和贮水系数的非均质空间分布,讨论了影响同化结果的因素。结果表明:与仅同化水头数据的结果相比,联合同化水头和浓度观测数据推估渗透系数场和贮水系数场时具有更高的精度,在观测数据拟合和模型预测方面也有更好的表现。与目前溶质运移模型、非饱和流模型等地下水模型中的研究结果相似,数据同化结果受样本数量,观测井的数量和位置的影响,合理优化布置监测井和选择样本数量可有效改善数据同化效果并提高计算效率。     

场认知方式、性别和惯用空间语对地理空间定向能力影响的实验研究

目前人们对空间定向能力影响因素的研究多关注性别与空间定向能力的关系,较少涉及场认知方式、惯用空间语等因素对空间定向能力的影响。本文以空间认知眼动实验的方式展开研究,通过国内版镶嵌图形测验（EFT）、问卷调查等途径获取被试的场认知方式、性别和惯用空间语等基本信息,使其在控制单一环境变量的虚拟三维空间中完成不同难度的定向任务。进而构建正确率和效率2个指标来衡量空间定向能力,通过统计分析确定空间定向能力的影响因素。研究结果表明：（1）不同场认知方式和不同惯用空间语人群的定向正确率和效率差异统计结果均不显著,场认知方式和惯用空间语对空间定向能力无显著影响;（2）不同性别人群之间定向效率无显著差异而正确率存在显著差异,性别对空间定向能力具有显著影响,男性的空间定向能力较女性更强。     

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